Israel’s War on Gaza: Views from Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon

Authors

  • Author

  • Yara Nassar

Keywords:

Hamas, War on Gaza, Arab Opinion Index, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon

Abstract

Following Hamas’ surprise attack on 7 October 2023, the initial celebratory mood among the Arab public turned into one of despair and anger as Israel declared war and its subsequent ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, leaving widespread destruction and perpetrating countless massacres, amounting to a genocide. The Arab public responded with vigorous economic boycotts, heightened social media activism, and street protests, displaying a mix of solidarity with the Palestinians and anger and outrage toward Israel’s conduct of war and Arab governments’ inaction. This paper analyses Arab Opinion Index data from a survey conducted between 12 December 2023 and 5 January 2024, focusing on public opinion in Palestine’s neighbouring countries, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon. The survey reveals that the Arab public is highly affected by the war in Gaza, and that there is a strong sense of solidarity with Palestinians. It also reveals Arab public dissatisfaction with Western support for Israel and growing anti-Western sentiment, particularly toward the United States.

References

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  3. See AOI results on: ACRPS, “Arab Public Opinion about the Israeli War on Gaza,” Arab Opinion Index, accessed on 7/7/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/bddsuvth
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  13. “Jordan: Stop cracking down on pro-Gaza protests and release those charged for exercising their freedoms of assembly and expression,” Amnesty International , 11/4/2024, accessed on 6/7/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/2npdsfej
  14. “al-Jaysh Yatadakhkhal li-Faḍihā.. Muẓāharāt Ghāḍiba fī Muḥīṭ al-Safāra al-Amīrkiyya,” Alaraby , 18/10/2023, accessed on 3/7/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/yc8hp2ur
  15. According to a survey conducted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) from 14 November to 6 December 2023, 17% of Shia, 63% of Sunnis, and 69% of Christians in Lebanon strongly or somewhat agreed that the early events of the war revealed hesitation on the part of Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other allies to assist the Palestinians for various reasons. Nevertheless, Hezbollah’s popularity showed some increase compared to November 2020. The survey revealed that 93% of Lebanese Shia viewed Hezbollah positively, compared to only 89% in 2020. Among Lebanese Sunnis, positive views of Hezbollah rose to 34%, a significant increase from just 8% in 2020. Additionally, 29% of Lebanese Christians held a positive view of Hezbollah by the end of 2023, up from 16% at the end of 2020. See: Catherine Cleveland, “In the Shadow of Hezbollah-Israel Escalation, Poll Shows Slim Majority of Lebanese Still Want Focus on Domestic Reforms over “Foreign Wars”,” Policy Analysis , Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 9/1/2024, accessed on 4/7/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/5n986235. However, it is important to note that WINEP is a Washington- based American research centre established in 1985 by AIPAC, with the aim of supporting Israeli positions through research. See: Mahmoud Ayoub, “’Maʿhad Wāshinṭun’.. Adā li-Ṣunʿ al-Siyāsa al-Amīrkiyya bil-Manṭiqa al-ʿArabiyya,” Maarif Center for Cultural Studies , 1/12/2017, accessed on 16/7/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/58ymbmdw. Therefore, caution should be exercised when interpreting data from WINEP, as its findings may be influenced by political objectives. The survey results included here are presented for informational purposes and should not be taken as exclusively reliable or as endorsements of WINEP’s credibility. With regard to Hezbollah, popularity does not necessarily signify deep support for Hezbollah, and it may merely be due to its response to Israel’s genocide in Gaza. An Arab Barometer survey also shows that “despite being a driving force in Lebanese politics and enjoying high levels of support among the country’s Shiite population, which is concentrated in the south and east, Hezbollah does not command widespread support across the country”. While 85% of Shia Lebanese say they have a great deal or quite a lot of trust in Hezbollah, by comparison, just 9% percent of Sunnis and Druze, respectively, and 6% percent of Christians say the same. Furthermore, 78% of Lebanese Shia rate Hezbollah’s role in regional affairs as positive, compared with only 13% of Sunnis, 12% of Christians, and 16% of Druze. See: MaryClare Roche & Michael Robbins, “What the Lebanese People Really Think of Hezbollah,” Foreign Affairs , 12/7/2024, accessed on 8/8/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/yt2twhn9
  16. Adham Saouli, “Identity, Anxiety, and War: Hezbollah and the Gaza Tragedy,” Al-Muntaqa: New Perspectives on Arab Studies , vol. 7, no. 1 (January/ February 2024), pp. 99-114.
  17. According to the World Directory of Minorities and Indigenous Peoples. See: “World Directory of Minorities and Indigenous Peoples - Lebanon: Palestinians, refworld , accessed on 25/8/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/4jb2fue6 Daily I don’t Rarely At least Several follow once times the news per week per week Lebanon Jordan Egypt
  18. For a discussion about the “unity of fronts” and the “axis of resistance”, see: Kassem Kassir, “The Phrases ‘Unity of Fields [of Battle]’, ‘Unity of Fronts’ or ‘Axis of Resistance’: Between Slogan and Reality,” Policy Paper , Institute for Palestine Studies, 20/11/2023, accessed on 2/7/2024, at:
  19. In a survey conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies in Jordan on the Gaza War from 13-23 November 2023, involving a sample of 1,200 Jordanian citizens and 100 experts, 79% of Jordanians reported that they have been closely following the events in Gaza since the war began. All participating experts also confirmed this, with 100% of them agreeing. See: “Ḥarb Isrāʾīl al-Mustaʿirra wa-ʿUdwānihā ʿalā Ghazza,” Public Opinion Slightly Not at all Don’t know/ Very much Somewhat Declined to answer Lebanon Jordan Egypt https://tinyurl.com/45crmpeu Survey , Center for Strategic Studies, 26/11/2023, accessed on 4/7/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/33cyayja Jordan Egypt Lebanon A legitimate resistance operation A legitimate resistance operation that made mistakes I stand with the Gazans and oppose Hamas
  20. According to the survey conducted by WINEP and even amid the destruction caused by Israel in its genocidal war against the Palestinians, 97% of Lebanese Shia indicated that the war on Gaza is a win for the whole region, 88% of Lebanese Sunnis agreed with this view, whereas only 54% of Lebanese Christians agreed and 27% opposed it. Responding to the same statement, 92% of Jordanians and 89% of Egyptians shared similar views.
  21. It is important to note that this figure and some other figures only include the main responses that hold significant weight in the analysis.
  22. Positive opinions toward Hamas are predominantly found within the Shia community in Lebanon, according to WINEP’s survey. Overall, 79% of Lebanese expressed a positive view of Hamas. However, opinions are more divided within the Christian community, with 59% holding a positive
  23. In a survey conducted by WINEP in November-December 2023 in Egypt, the percentage of Egyptians who view Hamas positively increased markedly compared to previous years. Between 2014-2020, positive views of Hamas ranged from only 23-33%, while negative views ranged from 63-73%. However, the war has significantly shifted these numbers, with 75% of Egyptians now viewing Hamas positively and only 21% holding a negative view. Mohamed Abdelaziz, “Egypt Polling Shows Rise in Positive Views of Hamas; Iran-Backed Groups and the Muslim Brotherhood
  24. According to the survey conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies, 66% of Jordanians strongly support Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel, with an equal percentage of experts affirming this view. In contrast, only 8% of Jordanians and 3% of experts oppose the attack. See: “Ḥarb Isrāʾīl Lebanon Jordan Egypt The ongoing Israeli occupation of Palestinian land Defending al-Aqsa Mosque against attacks Lebanon Egypt Jordan I stand with the Gazans and Hamas See: Cleveland. Responses with low percentages, such as “Don’t know/ Declined to answer” and “Other”, are not included. view and 38% holding a negative view. See: Cleveland. Remain Unpopular,” Policy Analysis , Washington Institute, 1 February 2924, accessed on 7/7/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/4xzehvfk al-Mustaʿirra wa-ʿUdwānihā ʿalā Ghazza.” Gaza war Lebanon Jordan 2022 Gaza war Lebanon Jordan Egypt Egypt
  25. An overwhelming majority of Egyptians (97%) believe that Arab countries should take a decisive stance by “immediately sever[ing] all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza”, according to WINEP’s survey. Despite the lack of consensus, more than two-thirds of Egyptians (69%) agree that “Arab governments should take a more active role in Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking, offering both sides incentives to take more moderate positions”. Additionally, a vast majority (96%) of Egyptians thought that their Egypt country should provide more humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, even if it requires some practical coordination with Israel. See: Abdelaziz. Jordan Don't know/ Declined to answer Egypt Don't know/ Declined to answer Don't know/ Declined to answer Oppose Support Oppose Support Lebanon Oppose Support
  26. Khulud Sulayman, “Ḥaṣīlat ‘al-Muqāṭaʿa’ wa-Khaṭar al-Irtidād ʿAnhā,” Alminassa , 22/5/2024, accessed on 9/7/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/5extkezu
  27. “Ḥarb Isrāʾīl al-Mustaʿirra wa-ʿUdwānihā ʿalā Ghazza.”
  28. Hidaya Taha, “al-Ḍarar ʿalā al-Iḥtilāl wa-l-Sharikāt al-Dāʿima lahū bil-Arqām.. al-Muqāṭaʿa al-Tijāriyya Tuthmir fī Lubnān,” Almayadeen , 24/1/2024, accessed on 7/7/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/y4nhwmft
  29. A significant proportion of Egyptians (78%), Jordanians (76%), and Lebanese (92%) believe that the war has shown that Israel is weak, internally divided, and potentially defeatable someday, according to WINEP’s survey. Abdelaziz.
  30. This finding is supported by a survey conducted by the independent research group IIACSS from 17 to 29 October 2023, which sampled 500 people each in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon. Only 7% of Arabs believe that the US has a positive role in the war, with this percentage dropping to just 2% in countries like Jordan. In contrast, 46% of Arabs in Egypt and 27% in Jordan believe that China has a positive role in the war. The positive views toward Russia are even more pronounced, averaging 47% across surveyed countries (excluding Palestine). Additionally, 40% of respondents say that Iran has a positive role in the war, compared to 21% who say it has a negative role. In Egypt, the percentage of those who view Iran’s role positively stood at 50%. Regarding trust levels, only 3% of Jordanian respondents report trusting the US , while 24-25% express trust in Russia and China. In Egypt, trust in the US stands at a mere 9%, compared to 51% for Russia and Iran, and 47% for China. See: Munqith Dagher & Karl Kaltenthaler, “The United States Is Rapidly Losing Arab Hearts and Minds Through Gaza War, While Competitors Benefit,” Policy Analysis , Washington Institute, 21 November 2023, accessed on 24/1/2024, at: http://tinyurl.com/bdfwbr3z
  31. In WINEP’s survey conducted in Egypt, public opinion was divided, with 57% agreeing with the statement: “We cannot count on the US these days, so we should look more to other countries like Russia or China as partners”, while 42% disagreed. See: Abdelaziz. Iran China Turkey Russia Lebanon Jordan Gaza war Lebanon
  32. For instance, demonstrations involved clashes at the US embassy in Lebanon and Jordan. See: “Infographic: Global Demonstrations in Response to the Israel-Palestine Conflict,” ACLED , 7/11/2023, accessed on 25/8/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/yd2pbvfk; “Thousands participate in protest at the US Embassy in Amman,” MEMO , 22/12/2023, accessed on 25/8/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/4rhn3nep; “Security Alert – U.S. Embassy – Amman,”
  33. According to the IIACSS survey, Jordanians (53%), Egyptians (50%), and Lebanese (40%) attribute Western support for Israel in its war on Hamas primarily to their hatred of Islam and Muslims. The influence of the Israeli lobby is the next most cited reason, mentioned by 28% in Jordan, 22% in Egypt, and 32% in Lebanon. The least significant reason for Western support mentioned by respondents in these countries was Western sympathy for Germany United France United Kingdom States Egypt Egypt Jordan U.S. Embassy in Jordan , 18/10/2023, accessed on 25/8/2024, at: https://tinyurl.com/3j7mbjk7 Israeli citizens: Jordan (7%), Egypt (11%), and Lebanon (10%), see: Dagher & Kaltenthaler.
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2024-01-01

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Vol. 7 No. 016 (2024): Issue 016

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Arab Opinion Index Analysis

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