Regional Security Governance, Audience Expectations and Foreign Policy Roles: North Africa's Demand that Tunisia Maintains Its

Authors

  • Authors

  • Imad Mansour
  • John Daniels Hicks

Keywords:

Tunisian Foreign Policy, Strategic Distance, North African States, Role Theory

Abstract

This study explains change in Tunisian foreign policy in the decade following the 2010 revolts. It contributes to Role Theory by explaining how regional audience expectations are powerful determinants of foreign policy roles. First, the article demonstrates how regional states came to expect Tunisia to follow a specific foreign policy role. Second, it explains how these expectations conditioned role enactment. The article shows how Tunisia developed and established a foreign policy posture of strategic distance, defined by non-partisanship in regional conflicts, adherence to legalism, and pursuit of economic interest. Strategic distance came to be expected by North African states that in turn, pushed Tunisia to maintain it.

References

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  48. Perhaps the most prominent other example is Putin's position in the Russian state in-between his presidencies.
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  72. Sarah Alaoui, "Morocco, commander of the (African) faithful?," Brookings, 8/4/2019, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://brook.gs/2WU65zP
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  75. Initially, the 2013 deposal of the Morsi-led MB government spurred a significant change in Egypt's regional posturing, as surrounding states criticized the newly-installed el-Sisi government as antithetical to self-determination and democracy. Egypt's reputational issues hampered their participation in international initiatives, when banned from the African Union and excluded from regional talks; this led to the imposing of sanctions by the Peace and Security Council (AU PSC Communiqué, 2013). See the Communiqué at: "Communiqué of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AU), at its 384th Meeting on the Situation in the Arab Republic of Egypt," African Union, 9/7/2013, accessed on 10/1/2023 at: https://bit.ly/3jUWSIn
  76. Egypt announced on 24 July 2014 that it has no plans for military intervention in Libya, see: "No plan for military intervention in Libya: Egypt FM," Ahram Online , 5/8/2014, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3GNZ91d. However, Egypt called for humanitarian-driven international intervention in Libya, see: "Egypt Calls for foreign Intervention in Libya," Aljazeera , 17/2/2015, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3ZmK4L1
  77. Yasser Elnaggar, "Egypt and the African Union," MEI@75 , 10/2/2020, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3Cr7wgf. Moreover, riding on regional instability to rebuild Egypt's international standing opened additional pathways for internal development and capacity-building, such as its successful negotiation of IMF loans; opportunities that may have otherwise been unavailable had Egypt not been recast as a check on militancy in North Africa. See: "IMF Executive Board Approves US$12 Billion Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility for Egypt," Press Release , no. 16/501, International Monetary Fund, 11/11/2016, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/2IewqS5
  78. Lamine Chikhi & Maggie Fick, "Algeria, Egypt's Sisi Talk Security, Gas Shipments," Reuters , 26/6/2014, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://reut.rs/3WTbFSy
  79. Anna Knoll & Chloe Teevan, "Protecting Migrants and Refugees in North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities for Reform," Discussion Paper , no. 281 (Maastricht: The European Centre for Development Policy Management, 2020).
  80. Alaa Elhadidi, "Egypt's Shifting Foreign Policy Priorities: How are Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's Foreign Policy Priorities Expected to ,?" The Cairo Review of Global Affairs (2018).
  81. Four-finger Salutes as Turks back Egypt Protesters," Reuters , 19/8/2013, accessed on 10/1/2023, at https://reut.rs/3WUcA5g. As the 2020s has been proving, however, positions can change because the ideology behind them is weak, and physical security threats have taken precedence.
  82. For the perspective of Cairo, see: Deya Abaza, "Egypt Will not Renew Transit-trade Agreement with Turkey: Officials," Ahram Online , 27/10/2014, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3XfYj2i. In turn, Turkey, in rebuffing Egyptian rhetorical attacks including accusations of instigating conflict in Libya, counters Egypt's with argument about "it is not surprising that those who have taken over their administration by coup d'état support a putschist [Haftar]" and highlights its dedicated role in combating the Islamic State forces in Syria, such as in "hand-to-hand combat". See: "Statement of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Hami Aksoy, in Response to a Question Regarding the Statement of the Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Egypt on the Accusations of Egyptian Foreign," Latest Press Releases , QA-44, Republic of Türkiye, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 6 June 2020, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3ihiQFd
  83. For the Egyptian statement condemning Tunisia's "intervention", see: Rana Muhammad Taha, "Egypt Condemns Tunisia's UNGA Address," Daily News Egypt , 27/9/2013, accessed on 10/1/2023, at:Rana Muhammad Taha, "Egypt's Ambassador in Tunis Returns to Egypt," Daily News Egypt , 30/9/2013, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3irRHiF
  84. Abou Essaoud Lahmidi, "Rached Ghannouchi déclare la guerre à l'Algérie!" African Manager , 2/8/2013, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3QqDU8D
  85. See the Moroccan King's speech at Kingdom of Morocco, "Full Text Of The Throne Day Speech Delivered By HM King Mohammed VI," Maroc.ma , Royal Speeches, 30/7/2014, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3CSZZr9
  86. Peter Cole, Borderline Chaos? Stabilizing Libya's Periphery (Washington, DC.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012).
  87. See President Marzouki's supervision during the Supreme Security Council meeting in the Carthage Palace: "Lutfi bin Jiddo: Supreme Security Council Meeting Discussed the Clashes in Libya and its Impact on Tunisia," babnet , 16/5/2014, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3GpFCCy; See an interview with President Marzouki: "Exclusive Interview: Tunisian President Marzouki."
  88. Porter (2015, 51-55) argues that Algeria initially opposed other states' Libya intervention; however, and despite its anti-interventionist posture, Algeria accepted Egypt's strikes, prioritizing security. Geoff D. Porter, "Le non-interventionnisme de l'Algérie en question," Politique étrangère , no. 3 (2015), pp. 43 - 55.
  89. Yahia H. Zoubir, "Security Challenges in the Maghreb: The Nexus between Bad Governance and Violent Extremism," EuroMeSCo Brief , no. 70 (2017).
  90. Meetings between Algeria and Tunisia aimed at creating joint task forces to share intelligence related to movement of people and goods. See: Ibrahim Menshawi, "cautious direction: The Algerian Position Toward the Evolution of Events in Tunisia," Arab Center for Research and Studies, 8/4/2015, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3ikhWHM
  91. Ahmad Weld Yahia, "'ghost hunting' is a Maghrebi regional plan to track 'ISIS' members," Bawabat al-Awsat 27/8/2014, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3CvCd3X. In addition to coordinating with Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco were also resistant to Tunisian calls to resurrect the Arab Maghreb Union. See: Julien Peyron, "La Tunisie s'engage seule dans la relance de l'Union du Maghreb," France 24 , 4/7/2012, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3GrkOus
  92. Hamza Meddeb, The Volatile Tunisia-Libya Border: Between Tunisia's Security Policy and Libya's Militia Factions (Beirut: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2020), pp. 3-4, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3jYqG74
  93. Tunisia Arrests Libyan 'Terrorist' with Explosives," Reuters , 9/5/2013, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://reut.rs/3jWcQ51. On attacks and their effects, see: Benoît Delmas, "Ben Guerdane: L'attaque terroriste la plus grave subie par la Tunisie," Le Point Afrique (2016).
  94. On the Tunisian-Algerian bilateral dimension, see: "Algérie: Abdelmalek Sellal reçoit Adnane Manser," Business News , 10/1/2014, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3ZaTxVI; on the Tunisia-Morocco bilateral dimension, see the 2014 Tunisia-Morocco cooperation decree: "Décret n° 2014 - 3644 du 3 octobre 2014, portant ratification de l'accord de coopération dans le domaine de l'environnement entre le gouvernement de la République Tunisienne et le gouvernement du Royaume du Maroc," Journal Officiel de la République Tunisienne , no. 84, 17/10/2014, p. 2734.
  95. Khadija Mohsen-Finan, "Tunisia: The Running Battle Between the Government and the UGTT," OrientXXI , 30/3/2017, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3vHMoyO
  96. Messages by Tunisia to clarify its foreign policy change persisted. For example, in reaction to the Mali military flare-up and the hostage-taking in an oil refinery in Algeria in 2013, the Tunisian president called upon regional countries to "unify efforts and security policies" to fend off violence and terrorism. See: "Tunisian Government expresses concern toward 'security reflections from the situation in Mali," Akhbar Muritania , accessed on 10/1/2023, at: http://goo.gl/CgjPRL. See also news report on the Tunisian-Algerian security collaboration: "Tunisia officially asks for Algeria's 'rescue' and will send a security and political delegation headed by the foreign minister tomorrow," Dunya al-Watan , 5/8/2013, accessed on 1/10/2923, at: http://goo.gl/yQT3fI. An example is the Algeria-Tunisia security cooperation in the bordering Chaambi Mountains to combat AQIM.
  97. On Egypt's stance from Libya, see: Walid al-Talili, "Tunisia in Libya: the non-stance policy to avoid external outrade," Al-Arabi al-Jadid , 13/5/2022, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3IxTZaF. On the Egypt-Tunisia position over Libya, see: "The Egyptian Initiative to solve the Libyan crisis," State Information Service , 16/6/2022, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3Gt3PYI
  98. On Tunisia's coordination with Algeria and Morocco over antiterrorism campaigns, see: "La Tunisie veut renforcer sa coopération antiterroriste avec l'Algérie et le Maroc," France 24 , 11/5/2016, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3ZjsHuy
  99. See the statement of the Tunisian Foreign Affairs Minister at: "Khémaies Jhinaoui: La Tunisie sera la voix du monde arabe et de l'Afrique à l'ONU," La Presse.tn , 10/10/2019, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3ihNaQ1
  100. Yuksel Serdar Oguz, "Q&A with Secretary-general of Tunisia's Ennahda," Anadolu Agency, October 20, 2015, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3VVogmZ
  101. See the Tunisian Prime Minister's statement: "Normalisation with Israel 'not on Agenda', Says Tunisian PM," Aljazeera, 15/12/2020, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3VSQzlV
  102. For example, Tunisia's tepid response to the Khashoggi assassination prioritized regional appeasement. See: Fayçal Métaoui, "Mohammed ben Salmane est plus ou moins le bienvenu au Maghreb," Presse - toi à gauche! 4/12/2018, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3iqGRtl
  103. Silvia Colombo & Benedetta Voltolini, "The EU's Engagement with 'Moderate' Political Islam: The Case of Ennahda," LSE Middle East Centre Papers Series , no. 19 (London: LSE Middle East Centre, 2017), pp. 11-13, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3GM6myK
  104. For Tunisia's position on Syria, see: "Tunisia calls for Arab League to readmit Syria," Aljazeera , 26/1/2019, accessed on 4/2/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3IxPMUj
  105. On Tunisia mending ties, see: Yosra Ouanes & Gulsen Topcu, "Tunisia Bids to Mend Ties with Algeria," Andalou Agency , 16/12/2020, accessed on 4/2/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3QqD1gl
  106. See the speech of the 2013 Tunisian President to the EU Parliament: "Moncef Marzouki, Président de la République tunisienne," Europarl , accessed on 1/10/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3ZmILM2
  107. See the speech of Rached Ghannouchi at a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace event in Washington D.C. on 26 February 2014: "Rached Ghannouchi on Tunisia's Democratic Transition," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 2014, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3ioUU2s
  108. Frédéric Bobin, "En Tunisie, 'le parti Nidaa Tounès est devenu une coquille vide'," Le Monde , 16/3/2016, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3IzL3lc
  109. The March 2015 Bardo National Museum attacks in Tunis and the June 2015 attack on a hotel in Port El Kantaoui exposed the severity of threats posed by porous borders and the country's reliance on the security and intelligence apparatuses of neighboring states. These incidents confirmed that Tunisia's national interest is served by meeting regional expectations, especially when its economic performance is dependent on these regional states' security support. See: Abdennour Benantar, "Algeria's Security Policy: Transformations and Dilemmas in the Context of Regional Unrest and Internal Ḥirāk," AlMuntaqa , vol. 5, no. 2 (September 2022), p. 77.
  110. Tunisia's Ennahda Distances Itself from Political Islam," Aljazeera , 21/5/2016, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3ilxVp4
  111. Attacks inside Tunisia highlighted the need for intra-regional security cooperation, as well as cooperation across the MENA and the Sahel; regional conflicts and rivalries especially between Algeria and Morocco impede the construction of robust security institutions. See: Samia Errazzouki, "Lost in the Debate: Beyond Dominant Narratives on the Western Sahara," Jadaliyya , 3/6/2013, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3GYiDAl.
  112. For the Algerian position, see for example: "Depuis Tunis, Abdelmalek Sellal déclare: La situation dans la région impose davantage de coordination," Radio Algérienne , 9/3/2017, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3WT8iuF
  113. See for example a report by Radio France Internationale: "Les propos d'un responsable marocain sur la Kabylie fâchent l'Algérie," RFI , 19/7/2021, accessed on 10/1/2023 at: https://bit.ly/3ZmoExO
  114. Mohammed Fawzi, Aggravated Crises: Dimensions of the Wave of Resignations inside Tunisia's Ennahda , Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, 29/9/2021, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3VVYezK
  115. Nizar Bou-Lihya, "The Tunisia Crisis: What Implications on Maghrebi States?" Al-Quds Al-Arabi , 2/2/2021, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3VP2xgo
  116. The visit was on 27 July 2021. See: Hadeel Hilal, "Moroccan Foreign Minister Hands a Letter from the King to the Tunisian President," al-Shurouq , 27/7/2021, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3GOsF6G
  117. See the Egyptian foreign ministry statement on 1 August 2021: Samar Nasr, "Foreign Ministry: Egypt trusts the wisdom and ability of the Tunisian Presidency to overcome this crisis," Bawwabat al-Ahram , 1/8/2021, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://bit.ly/3XgThTg
  118. Tunisian predictability becomes more necessary given Turkey's regional interventions. Heba Saleh, "Egypt Threatens Military Action in Libya if Turkish-Backed Forces Seize Sirte," Financial Times , 21/6/2020, accessed on 10/1/2023, at: https://on.ft.com/3WT4vhh
  119. Wehner & Thies, "Leader Influence in Role Selection Choices."

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