Demographic rupture and prospects of population dynamics in Syria

Abstract

Syrian demography has witnessed a process of gradual transformation throughout the post-independence decades since 1946. Between continuity and rupture, the general path of transformation allowed for overall prediction of rising levels of development indicators as a whole, continuous increase in life expectancy at birth and decline in maternal and infant deaths, and a gradual decline in births and fertility, and relative slowdown of population growth. However, by 2011, the demographic transition process in Syria had reversed; the onset of the Syrian crisis constituted a rupture in a strict demographic sense, inseparable from the overall imbalance afflicting the structure of Syrian society due to nearly ten years of conflict, and accompanied by another break in the quantity and quality of knowledge of demographic facts. This research seeks to provide answers to questions arising from these disruptions to draw a preliminary picture of likely changes in population dynamics in Syria over the next decade.