السيناريوهات المستقبلية المبنية على طريقة دلفي: تحليل كمي إحصائي لدراسات حالة تغير المناخ

المؤلفون

  • مؤلفون

  • يوري كاليو
  • فرانشيسكو بيلا

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31430/usna6365

الكلمات المفتاحية:

الدراسات المستقبلية، السيناريوهات المستقبلية المبنية على طريقة دلفي، التغير المناخي، التحليل الكمي الإحصائي

الملخص

تُعَد عملية تطوير السيناريو طريقة راسخة لتحديد التوقعات المستقبلية في سياق الدراسات المستقبلية، وهي مفيدة لتجنب التهديدات المستقبلية واتخاذ إجراءات متعددة في الوقت الحاضر للتعامل مع تلك التهديدات. وغالبًا ما يتم دمج تطوير السيناريوهات المستقبلية مع مناهج تشاركية-تفاعلية مختلفة، منها طريقة دلفي، المعتمَدَة على نطاق واسع لطبيعتها المنهجية والتفاعلية. وفي هذا السياق، تقود التحدياتُ المناخية الأخيرة المجتمعات إلى العيش في حالة نمو متسارع من عدم اليقين بشأن المستقبل؛ حيث يمكن أن تكون السيناريوهات المبنية على طريقة دلفي (DBS) مفيدة في تحديد التوقعات المثيرة للاهتمام على المديين المتوسط والطويل. ولغرض إجراء مراجعة منهجية للسيناريوهات المستقبلية المبنية على طريقة دلفي والمطبَّقة في سياق تغير المناخ، استخدمنا تحليلًا كميًا إحصائيًا يهدف إلى فحص مسار الأدبيات العلمية بتوظيف منهجيات: تحليل التناظر المتعدد، وتحليل شبكة المفاهيم ودلالاتها. كما نوضح نتائج دراسات الحالة التي تركز على مزيج من المنهجيات، وعدد جولات العملية، وأخذ عينات من الباحثين المشاركين، والأفق الزمني، والتقنيات المستخدمة، كل ذلك بهدف تأسيس قواعد إرشادية جديدة لمشاريع أبحاث المناخ المستقبلية المبنية على طريقة دلفي.

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