Regional Gas Integration in the Gulf Cooperation Council Difficult Past and Possible Futures

Authors

  • Authors

  • Laurent A. Lambert
  • جوردان لي

Keywords:

Gulf Energy Integration, Pipeline Geopolitics, Natural Gas, Qatar, UAE, GCC

Abstract

This paper reviews the dynamics of regional gas integration among the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council since the launch of the Dolphin Energy project in 1999 and proposes scenarii for gas pipeline exports until 2032. Based on the general assumption that the primary driver of regional gas integration (or the lack thereof, between some countries) is regional geopolitics, this paper proposes three scenario for future gas trade via pipeline based on the known contractual provisions of the Dolphin energy gas delivery agreements and a qualitative approach of geopolitical risk assessment.

References

  1. Laurent A. Lambert, "Water, State Power, and Tribal Politics in the GCC: The Case of Kuwait and Abu Dhabi," Georgetown University/ Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Occasional Paper no. 15 (2014), accessed on 3/6/2018, at: https://goo.gl/aKooQH
  2. في مطلع العقد الماضي، جرى تصنيف أربع من دول الخليج الست ضمن البلدان العشرة الأشدّ ندرة في المياه على صعيد العالم، وهي الكويت بمعدل 10 أمتار مكعبة للفرد في السنة، والإمارات بمعدل 58 مترًا مكعبًا للفرد في السنة، وقطر بمعدل 94 مترًا مكعبًا للفرد في السنة، والسعودية بمعدل 118 مترًا مكعبًا للفرد في السنة؛ وتحتل على التوالي المراتب الأولى والثالثة والخامسة والثامنة عالميًا على صعيد شحّ المياه المحلية للفرد: Kamel Mustafa Amer (ed.), Policy Perspectives for Ecosystem and Water Management in the Arabian Peninsula (Hamilton: United Nations University Press, 2006).
  3. Mohamed Rashed Al-Neaimi, "Population growth and water resources in the United Arab Emirates, 1975 to 2025: A ArcGIS approach," PhD. Dissertation, Arkansas University, 2003; Michael Dziuban, "Scarcity and Strategy in the GCC," Gulf Analysis Paper , Center for Strategic and international Studies CSIS, (February 2011), accessed on 3/6/2018, at: https://goo.gl/E82NyN
  4. Justin Gengler & Laurent A. Lambert, "Renegotiating the Ruling Bargain: Selling Fiscal Reform in the GCC," The Middle East Journal , vol. 70, no. 2 (Spring 2016), pp. 321 - 329.
  5. Brigitte Dumortier & Laurent A. Lambert, "Vers la privatisation d'un double secteur stratégique: l'eau et l'électricité aux Emirats Arabes Unis," Maghreb Machrek , no. 191 (Printemps 2007), pp. 109 - 126; Lambert, "Water, State Power.".
  6. Jim Krane & Steven Wright, "Qatar 'rises above' its region: Geopolitics and the rejection of the GCC gas market," London School of Economics and Political Sience/Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States, Number 35 (March 2014), accessed on 3/6/2018, at: https://goo.gl/4QaS7i
  7. انخفض معدّل حرق الغاز المنتج بين عامي 2005 و 2010 من 17 إلى 1.75 في المئة وفق ما أعلنه البنك الدولي. انظر: The World Bank, "Kuwait Joins Efforts to Cut Emissions from Gas Flaring," Press Release No: 2012/300/SDN (March 4, 2012), accessed on 3/6/2018, at: https://goo.gl/vWc6EG
  8. Justin Dargin, "The Dolphin Project: The Development of a Gulf Gas Initiative," Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, NG 22 (January 2008), accessed on 3/6/2018, at: https://goo.gl/bvehKL
  9. تبلغ مساحة حقل غاز الشمال الذي اكتُشف في عام 1971 قبالة الساحل القَطري 6000 كلم 2؛ وهو حقل مشترك مع إيران، ويُعد أكبر حقل غاز غير مصاحب في العالم؛ وأتاح لقطر أن تغدو المصدِّر الرئيس للغاز على الصعيد الإقليمي وطرفًا فاعلً رئيسًا على الصعيد الدولي في مجال تصدير الغاز الطبيعي المُسال في العالم. انظر: Dargin, "The Dolphin Project..."; Justin Dargin, Desert Dreams: The Quest for Arab Integration from the Arab Revolt to the Gulf Cooperation Council (Dordrecht: Republic of Letters Publishing, 2011).
  10. انظر موقع الرسمي لشركة دولفين للطاقة المحدودة https://bit.ly/2HxtAXy:
  11. Steven Wright, "Qatar's LNG: Impact of changing East-Asian market," Middle East Policy , vol. 24, no. 1 (2017), pp. 154 - 165. الخريطة (1) أنابيب مشروع غاز شركة دولفين المصدر: Dolphin Energy Ltd., "Dolphin Gas Project," accessed on 5/7/2018, at https://goo.gl/hNpwHm الشكل (1) أسعار الغاز في السوق الفورية في مقابل أسعاره وفق خط أنابيب دولفين المصدر: Laurent A. Lambert & Jordan Lee, based on: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (2008 and 2017), Krane and Wright (2014), The National (2013), U.S. Energy Information Administration (2018).
  12. Cf. "Qatar keeps exporting LNG, oil despite diplomatic row," Gulf Times (June 6, 2017), accessed on 3/6/2018, at: https://goo.gl/2EpZbW
  13. Cf. "Qatar Petroleum Signs Deal With Abu Dhabi to Develop, Operate Al Bunduq Offshore Oilfield," Albawaba (March 14, 2018), accessed on 3/6/2018, at: https://goo.gl/wAAV8P الشكل (2) ثلاثة سيناريوهات مستقبلية لشحنات الغاز عبر خط أنابيب دولفين المصدر: Laurent A. Lambert & Jordan Leem, based on: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (2008 and 2017); Krane & Wright (2014); Dolphin Energy, "Dolphin Energy delivers first natural gas to Oman," Dolphin Energy Press Releases (October 31, 2008), accessed on 5/7/2018, at: https://goo.gl/KQCght; Tom Finn & Rania El Gamal, "Qatar has no Plan to shut Dolphin gas pipeline to UAE despite Rift: Sources," Reuters (June 6, 2017), accessed on 5/7/2018, at: https://goo.gl/vQjixf
  14. Playing with fire: Iran deal looms over rising oil price," Financial Times (April 27, 2018), accessed on 5/4/2018, at: https://goo.gl/dhhps5
  15. Tiny, Wealthy Qatar Goes Its Own Way, and Pays for It," The New York Times (January 22, 2018), accessed on 5/4/2018, at: https://goo.gl/thuQjh
غلاف العدد 3 من دورية استشراف

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Published

2018-07-01

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Vol. 3 No. 003 (2018): Issue 003

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Studies

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