Israel's National Security Strategy for 2030

Abstract

This paper discusses the strategic vision for national security in 2030 that the Israeli government adopted in 2018. This strategy is based on constructing future scenarios for transformations in US support for Israel under Trump and the weakening of the US's great power status in the Middle East and Europe vis-à-vis the position of Russia in the same region and globally, and the return to a bipolar world. It also considers scenarios in which Iran might surprisingly uncover its nuclear capabilities, in which it arrives at a settlement with a post-Abbas Palestinian authority, a temporary settlement with Hamas, and finally, scenarios for the perseverance of governing regimes that currently deal with Israel whether openly or in secret.