العودة إلى تفاصيل المؤلَّف إعادة تأهيل السياسة الصناعية في الوطن العربي: دروس الماضي، تحديات الحاضر وآفاق المستقبل

إعادة تأهيل السياسة الصناعية في الوطن العربي: دروس الماضي، تحديات الحاضر وآفاق المستقبل

Rehabilitating Industrial Policy in the Arab world: Past lessons, Present challenges, and Future Prospects

إﺑﺮاﻫﻴﻢ أﺣﻤﺪ اﻟﺒﺪوي@ ﺳﺎﻣﻲ ﻋﻄﺎ ا @@

الملخّص

رغماً عن أن السياسة الصناعية فى الوطن العربى لم تنل حظاً يُذكر من النجاح، إلا أن هناك ما يشبه الإجماع في المجتمع التنموي بضرورتها في عالم ما بعد الركود العالمي العظيم والذى أوضح بجلاء فشل السوق حتى في حالة الدول الصناعية الكبرى. بالمقابل، لابد أن تُبنى السياسة الصناعية الجديدة على أسس وآليات جديدة ومبتكرة، تستند الى فضاء الانتاج السائد في الاقتصاد، لتحديد نوعية وحجم التدخلات الحكومية، والى آليات مؤسسية تحقق "الاستقلالية المندمجة" للقطاع العام في إطار علاقته مع القطاع الخاص. في هذا السياق تطرح الورقة استراتيجية للسياسة الصناعية العربية لمعالجة تحديين أساسيين. الأول هو كيف يمكن للحكومة أن تعلم المدخلات الأساسية العمومية المطلوبة للشركات لكي تتمكن من إنتاج منتجات جديدة ومتطورة تساهم في تنويع قاعدة الاقتصادات العربية. والثاني، ما هي المبادئ العامة التي يجب أن تقود عملية تزويد هذه المدخلات، خاصة لجهة تفادى اعتبارات الاقتصاد السياسي المرتبطة بمحاولات "التماس الريع". الاجابة على السؤال الأول تتطلب تحديد عناصر السياسة الصناعية من ناحية المحتوى، بينما السؤال الثاني يستوجب تحديد الآليات المؤسسية التي تحكم إدارة هذه السياسة.

Abstract

Y}T~ÐUšfehpÐU_nUehpºíÐIf]ŒºÐUøxnÓÐUeš{ÒÐúYh}Thp ÐUe}T~ÐUd˜fniUd{ÚÐHnÓº=h}íÓºU˜fnë

الكلمات المفتاحية:
  • السياسة الصناعية
  • الاقتصاد السياسي
  • الاستقلالية المندمجة
  • التماس الريع
Keywords:
  • Industrial Policies
  • Arab World
  • Global Stagnation
  • Market Failure
  • Production Structure
  • Political Economy

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(2) Ricardo Hausmann and Dani Rodrik, «Doomed to Choose: Industrial Policy as Predicament,» (Paper Prepared for the First Blue Sky Seminar Organized by the Center for International Development at Harvard University on 9 September 2  , Cambridge, 0$ , 2 September 2 ), on the: eb: http:  www  sss  ias  edu ¿ les  pdfs  Rodrik  Research  doomed  to  choose.pdf> (Accessed 22/5/2014).

دراﺳﺎت إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻃﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ: دروس اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ وآﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ

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(3) Kenneth J. Arrow, «The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing,» Review of Economic Studies, vol. 29, no. 3 (June 1962), pp. 155–173. (4) Joseph E. Stiglitz, Justin Yifu Lin and Célestin Monga, «The Rejuvenation of Industrial Policy,» (Policy Research Working Paper; 6628, World Bank, Washington, DC, September 2013).

اﻟﻌﺪد ٩ / ٣

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—aiÚ{[eUÐ (À)

(6) Dani Rodrik, «Industrial Policy: Don’t Ask Why, Ask How,» Middle East Development Journal (Demo Issue) (2008).

ÕnšiüÐÊn\Rýn[BŒhe\>ënce=phewúÐŒYºêÐ{š—eUÐefUÐíØn[šSøÐÒ{LnS…xf>ŒLp›x{UÐÓnHÐÚ{UÐÒØnRÎo—= (Â)

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Ibrahim Elbadawi and Alan H. * elb, «Oil, Economic Diversi ¿ cation, and Development in the Arab World,» (Policy Research Report; 35, Economic Research Forum, Cairo, December 2010).

دراﺳﺎت إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻃﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ: دروس اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ وآﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ

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دراﺳﺎت إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻃﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ: دروس اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ وآﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ

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(9) Rodrik, «Industrial Policy,» and Mustapha Nabli [et al], «The Political Economy of Industrial Policy in the Middle East and North Africa,» (Working Paper; 110, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Cairo, May 2006). (10) Dani Rodrik, «Understanding Economic Policy Reform,» Journal of Economic Literature , vol. 34, no. 1 (March

(11) Nabli [et al], «The Political Economy of Industrial Policy». (12) Rodrik, «Industrial Policy».

اﻟﻌﺪد ٩ / ٣

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(14) Stiglitz, Lin and Monga, «The Rejuvenation of Industrial Policy». (15) Olivier Blanchard, «The Future of Macroeconomic Policy: Nine Tentative Conclusions,» (IMF Direct, 13 March 2011), on the Web: <http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/03/13/future-of-macroeconomic-policy/>.

دراﺳﺎت إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻃﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ: دروس اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ وآﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ

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(16) Nabli [et al], «The Political Economy of Industrial Policy».

اﻟﻌﺪد ٩ / ٣

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(17) Nabli [et al], «The Political Economy of Industrial Policy».

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(19) Rodrik, «Industrial Policy»; Ibrahim Elbadawi, Linda Kalt and Raimundo Soto, «Aid, Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa,» (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008), and Philippe Aghion [et al.], «Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development,» Journal of Monetary Economics , vol. 56, no. 4 (2009), pp. 494-513.

ºÓÐ}h?jšUÐì|gUp”}LŠ^>n ð\xÌî}BúÐéí{UÐëlRºph]afUÐph=}_UÐéí{UÐpUnARn ð”Ðíí{˜x]afUÐ…x}UÐ}?ÌëÌŒhAR (½»)

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(21) Elbadawi and Gelb, «Oil, Economic Diversi ¿ cation». (22) Ahmed Galal and Nihal El-Megharbel, «Do Governments Pick Winners or Losers " An Assessment of Industrial Policy in Egypt,» (Working Paper; 108, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Cairo, December 2005).

دراﺳﺎت إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻃﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ: دروس اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ وآﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ

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(25) Elbadawi and Gelb, «Oil, Economic Diversi ¿ cation».

ph˜x}œšUÐpxØn[šSøÐÓnh=ØúÐê{žš—>.(âfšUÐŒYp@ÚØŠSÌ) ¼»»UÐ (âfšUÐŒYp@ÚØdLÌ) »ŒY}IkeUÐÐ|wpehSÖíÐ}š>

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Ibrahim Elbadawi, «Real Exchange Rate Policy and Non-Traditional Exports in Developing Countries,» in: G. K. Helleiner, ed., Non-Traditional Export Promotion in Africa: Experience and Issues (Houndmills, Hampshire; New York: Palgrave, 2002).

ënåeåI}åhåwéÐ{åfåR}åhåw}åIkYêÐ{垚åHÐéĆåBŒåY (âåfåšUÐåcåL) ~åhåT}åšUÐpåhwnåYåUÎãÚnåxÛÐíå˜eåxЊÉå>í

}^iкiØúÐí[SúÐŒh=ÓínašUÐíºphLn]bUЁ[UÐâf>ŠYn_Yº (Herfindhal-Hirschman Index: HHI)

Jean Imbs and Romain Wacziarg, «Stages of Diversi ¿ cation,» American Economic Review , vol. 93, no. 1 (March 2003).

}^iкÓÐÚØn[UАUne@ÎŒYph_h˜]UÐØÚÐeUÐp[AíëneI}hwéÐ{fR}hw}IkYënYÚ{hUíiUnYê{žšHÐ

William Maloney and Daniel Lederman, «Trade Structure and Growth,» in: William F. Maloney and Lederman, eds., Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press; Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007), pp. 15-40. (26) «Industrial Development Report, 2009,» (United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) Database).

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ÓnincY΂ažf>º}BËf_e=. Ò{x{@Ón@šfYÕnšiÎDL>ÐÚ{SíLnf[UÐân]bUÐÓÐÚ{bYßnažiÐ ‰UÙDLØÛ. ïØn[šSøЭefUЉU|=ˆh_šRºÐ ð}eš—Yn ð”nažiÐÒ{x{@Ón@šfYÕnšiÎ:-}_UÐ3n_UÐ

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(27) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the Middle East and North Africa: Toward a New Social Contract , MENA Development Report. Orientations in Development (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004); Ahmed Galal, «The Paradox of Education and Unemployment in Egypt,» (Working Paper; 67, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Cairo, March 2002), and Ragui Assaad, «The Transformation of the Egyptian Labor Market, 1988-98,» in: Ragui Assaad, ed., The Egyptian Labor Market in an Era of Reform (Cairo; New York: American University in Cairo Press, 2002). (28) Khalid Sekkat, «Does Competition Improve Productivity in Developing Countries " ,» Journal of Economic Policy Reform , vol. 12, no. 2 (2009), pp. 145-162.

اﻟﻌﺪد ٩ / ٣

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(29) Ricardo Hausmann, Jason Hwang, and Dani Rodrik, «What you Export Matters,» Journal of Economic Growth , vol. 12, no. 1 (March 2007). (30) Dani Rodrik, «Industrial Development: Stylized Facts and Policies,» (Chapter Prepared for the U.N.-DESA Publication Industrial Development for the 21st Century, Cambridge, MA, August 2006), on the Web: <http://www.sss. ias.edu/ ¿ les/pdfs/Rodrik/Research/industrial-development.pdf> (Accessed 22/5/2014).

دراﺳﺎت إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻃﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ: دروس اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ وآﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ

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(32) Imbs and Wacziarg, «Stages of Diversi ¿ cation». (33) Bailey Klinger and Daniel Lederman, «Discovery and Development: An Empricial Exploration of «New» Products,» (Policy Research Working Paper; 3450, World Bank, Washington, DC, 2004).

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دراﺳﺎت إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻃﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ: دروس اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ وآﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ

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(36) Hausmann and Rodrik, «Doomed to Choose».

دراﺳﺎت إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻃﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ: دروس اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ وآﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ

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Justin Yifu Lin and Celestin Monga, «Comparative Advantage: The Silver Bullet of Industrial Policy,» in: Joseph E. Stiglitz, Joan Esteban and Justin Yifu Lin, eds., The Industrial Policy Revolution, I: The Role of Government beyond Ideology, International Economic Association (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013). (38) Rodrik, «Industrial Policy».

اﻟﻌﺪد ٩ / ٣

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(39) Peter Evans, Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation , Princeton Paperbacks (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995). (40)Rodrik, «Industrial Policy».

دراﺳﺎت إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺄﻫﻴﻞ اﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻃﻦ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﻲ: دروس اﻟﻤﺎﺿﻲ وﺗﺤﺪﻳﺎت اﻟﺤﺎﺿﺮ وآﻓﺎق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ

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Ricardo Hausmann, Jason Hwang and Dani Rodrik, «What you Export Matters,» Journal of Economic Growth , vol. 12, no. 1 (March 2007).

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Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik, «What you Export Matters».

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Bailey Klinger and Daniel Lederman, «Discovery and Development: An Empricial Exploration of «New» Products,» (Policy Research Working Paper; 3450, World Bank, Washington, DC, 2004) (Author’s Calculation).

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.Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik, «What you Export Matters»

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.Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik, «What you Export Matters»

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Hidalgo [et al.], «The Product Space».

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Hidalgo [et al.], «The Product Space».

اﻟﻌﺪد ٩ / ٣