The Faltering of the Demographic Transition in Syria

Abstract

The demographic transition in the Arab Republic of Syria came late (its first signs being only in 1970s) and when it did come it was extreme (after the mid-1980s). It then rapidly faltered from the 1990s, slowing down and then halting. After a general description of the demographic transition based on rates of natural population growth and overall fertility rates, the study proposes an analysis of the mechanisms that guided the process. This uses two themes, the first concerns policy, and connects the nature of the official understanding of the population question (particularly during the first three decades after independence) and the historical circumstances that governed that understanding, and how that is linked to Syrian national identity and the attempt to empower, protect, and develop the country by means of the demographic question. The second theme is development, and shows the interactions of the official demographic view and the reality of rapid population growth that continued for many years with the course of the development process, be it positive (as in the 1970s) or negative (subsequently). Understanding the current moment of the halt (or faltering) of the demographic transition in Syria is Egypt’s Demographic Dividend and its Prospects directly connected to the understanding of interaction of those two themes over the past six decades.