Between Demographic Surge and Aging: A Reading on Demographic Shifts and Social Policies in Omani Society

Abstract

This paper considers expected demographic shifts in the structure of Omani society, a young society approaching what is known as “the demographic window,” as they are set forth in Population Projections, Oman 2040 and Population Projections Oman 2050, to study scenarios impacting social policies, and the ability of current medium-term social policies, policies, such as Social Action Strategy 2025 and long-term national policies emanating from Oman Vision 2040, to accommodate these transformations and frame effective models for dealing with them. The paper outlines three scenarios for the future of social policies based on the facts considered in population projections: the “high population projection” scenario; The “medium population projection” scenario; and the “low population projection” scenario. The paper explores the features of these three scenarios and the social patterns associated with them, depending on change or continuity in the type of social policy.